We have a promising idea but almost no evidence. How can we start responsibly?
High-uncertainty opportunityFund a learning stage rather than presenting speculation as a delivery commitment. Define what must be learned, the cheapest useful experiment, and the evidence required to continue.
What to do now
- List the most consequential assumptions
- Design a small falsifiable test
- Cap the experiment's time and cost
- Decide whether to proceed from the results
When to escalate
Escalate when
The team requests full rollout funding before testing the core assumption.
Who decides
The accountable sponsor
Example
A training provider tests demand with one paid cohort before developing an entire course catalog.
Mistake to avoid
Writing a detailed annual plan around an untested idea.
Prevent a repeat
At each stage decision, check that the expected outcome, owner and justification remain valid.
Suggested ApprovedFlow setup
- Projects
- Documents
- Approvals
Keep the decision brief with the project and request a recorded sponsor decision before the next commitment. See the platform
Related cases
- The sponsor says everything is equally important. How can we prioritize?Unresolved strategic trade-offs
- A strategic project has no operational owner after delivery. Is that a problem now?Missing post-project ownership
- We only record threats. Should opportunities be included?One-sided uncertainty management
- How do we estimate work we have never done before?High-uncertainty estimation